Monday, May 18, 2015

Engineering Economics


"At 19, he began to invest in stocks & mutual funds"...calculated their FV

estimation by analogy
  • use knowledge about well-understood activities to anticipate costs & benefits for new ones, since "first-run" estimates are precariously difficult
Triangulation

Segmenting model (aka, divide & conquer)

Decision making
  • Would you be better off if you changed your major?
  • Should you work more, while graduating later?
  • Describe a major problem you must address in the next two years. 
  • Give an example for segmenting. Then give an example where this strategy won't work.
  • Your car gets 24 miles per gallon (mpg) at 60 miles per hour (mph) and 20 mpg at 70 mph. At what speed should you make 500 mile trip: (a) If get costs $3 per gallon and your time is worth $18/hr? (b) If get costs $4 per gallon and your time is worth $12/hr? (c) If get costs $5 per gallon and your time is worth $9/hr?
Other
  • Sunk costs of life, make a list.
  • Estimate the cost of a 500- mile automobile trip, if gasoline is $4.00 per gallon, vehicle wear and tear is $0.65 per mile, and the vehicle gets 25 mpg

Annual Cash Flow Analysis
  • When he started work on his 22nd birthday, Cooper decided to invest money each month with the objective of becoming a millionaire by the time he reaches his 65th birthday. If he expects his investments to yield 18% per mum, compounded monthly, how much should he invest each month? (Answer: $6.92/mo.)
  • The average age of engineering students when they graduate is a little over 23 years. This means the working career of most engineers is almost exactly 500 months. How much would an engineer need to save each month to become a millionaire by the end of his working career? Assume a 15% interest rate, compounded monthly
  • An engineer wishes to have $5 million by the time he retires in 40 years. Assuming 15% nominal interest, compounded continuously, what annual sum must he set aside?
  • A college student has been looking for a new tire for his car and has located the following 1 alternatives: 
Tire warranty Price per tire 
12 mo.  39.95
24 mo. 59.95
36 mo. 69.95
48 mo. 90
    • If the student feels that the warranty period is a good estimate of the tire life and that a 10% interest 3 rate is appropriate, which tire should he buy?

Rate of Return Analysis
  • An engineer invests $5,000 at the end of every year for a 40-year career. If the engineer wants $1 million in savings at retirement, what interest rate must the investment earn?
  • For your auto insurance, find out the cost of paying annually or on a shorter term. What is the rate of return for buying the insurance on an annual basis?
  • One aspect of obtaining a college education is the prospect of improved future earnings in comparison to non-college graduates. Sharon Shay estimates that a college education has a $28,000 equivalent cost at graduation. She believes the benefits of her education will occur throughout 40 years of employment. She thinks that during the first 10 years out of college, her income will be higher than that of a non-college graduate by $3000 per year. During the subsequent 10 years, she projects an annual income that is $12,000 above the level of the non-college graduate. If her estimates are correct, what rate of return will she receive as a result of her investment in a college education?
  • Upon graduation every engineer must decide whether or not to go on to graduate school. Estimate the costs of going full time to the university to obtain a Master of Science degree. Then estimate the resulting costs and benefits. Combine the various consequences into a cash flow table and compute the rate of retum. Non-financial benefits are probably relevant here too.
  • A young engineer's starting salary is $52,000. The engineer expects annual raises of 3%. The engineer will deposit 10% of the annual salary at the end of each year in a savings account that earns 4%. f the engineer have saved for starting a business after 15 years? We suggest that the spreadsheet include at least columns for the year, the years salary, the years deposit, and the years cumulative savings.
  • A young engineer has a starting salary of $75,000. The engineer expects annual raises of 2%. The engineer will deposit 15% of the annual salary at the end of each year in a savings account that earns 6% interest. How much will the engineer have saved for retirement after 40 years?
  • A young engineer has a starting salary of $55,000. The engineer expects annual raises of 2%. The engineer will deposit a constant percentage of the annual salary at the end of each year in a savings account that earns 6%. What percentage must be saved so that there will be $1 million in savings for retirement after 40 years? (Use GOAL SEEK to get 11.29% for 1,000,133)
  • Find the average starting engineer's salary for your discipline. Find and reference a source for average annual raise you can expect. If you deposit 10% of your annual salary at the end of each year in a savings account that earns 4%, how much will you have saved for retirement after 40 years?

Choosing the Best Alternative
  • Develop the costs and benefits to compare owning a car versus depending on public transit, friends, and a bicycle. Place a monetary value on each advantage or disadvantage. Develope a choice table for interest rates between 0 and 25%.
  • Evaluate a car that can be leased. Is it better to buy or lease the car?

Other Analysis Techniques
  • Pick a discretionary expense that you incur on a regular basis, such as buying cigarettes weekly, buying fashion items monthly, eating out etc. Assume that you instead place the money in an investment account that earns 9% annually. After 40 years, how much is in the account?
  • A 20-year-old student decided to set aside $100 on his 21st birthday for investment. Each subsequent year through 55th birthday, he plans to increase the investment on a $100 arithmetic gradient. He will not set aside additional money after his 55th birthday. If the student can achieve a 12% rate of return, what is the future worth of the investment on his 65th birthday?
  • Don Ball is a 55-year-old engineer. According to mortality tables, a male at age 55 has an average life expectancy of 21 more years. Don has accumulated $48,500 toward his retirement. He is now adding $5000 per year to his retirement fund. The fund earns 12% interest. Don will retire when he can obtain an annual income from his retirement fund of $20,000, assuming he lives to age 76. He will make no provision for a retirement income after age 76. What is the youngest age at which Don can retire?
  • A recent college graduate got a job and began a saving account. He authorized the bank to automatically transfer $500 each month from his checking account to the savings account. The bank made the first withdrawal on July 1, 2018 and is instructed to make the last withdrawal on January 1, 38. The bank pays a nominal interest rate of 4.5% and compounds twice a month. What is the future worth of the account on January 1, 2038?
  • Tom Sewell has gathered data on the relative costs of a solar water heater system and a conventional electric water heater. The data are based on statistics for a mid-American city and assume that during cloudy days an electric heating element in the solar heating system will provide the necessary heat. The installed cost of a conventional electric water tank and heater is $200. A family of four uses an average of 300 liters of hot water a day, which takes $230of electricity per year. The glass-lined tank has a 20-year guarantee. This is probably a reasonable estimate of its actual useful life. The installed cost 'of two solar panels, a small electric pump, and storage tank with auxiliary electric heating element is $1400. It will cost $60-a year for electricity to run the pump and heat water on cloudy days. The solar system will require $180 of maintenance work every 4 years. Neither the conventional electric water heater nor the solar water heater will have any salvage value at the end of their useful lives.
    • (a) Using Tom's data what is the payback period if the solar water heater system is installed, rather than the conventional electric water heater? 
    • (b) Chris Cook studied the same situation and decided that the solar system will not require the $180 of maintenance every 4 years. Chris believes future replacements of either the conventional electric water heater or the solar water heater system can be made at the same costs and useful lives as the initial installation. Based on a 10% interest rate, what must be the useful life of the solar system to make it no more expensive than the electric water heater system?
  • Victoria is choosing between a standard Honda Civic for $17,350 or a hybrid Civic for $20,875. She calculates her annual cost of ownership including payments but not including gasoline to be $5000 for the standard and $5800 for the hybrid. The standard Civic will cost Victoria 18¢/mile for gasoline, while the hybrid will cost her only 12¢/mile. How many miles must Victoria drive in a year before the hybrid vehicle becomes more cost efficient to her?

Section 179 & Tax Credits
  • Chris wants to add a solar photovoltaic system to his home. He plans to install a 2-kW system and has received a quote from an installer who will install this unit for $19,750. The fed will give him a tax credit of 30% of the cost, and the state will give a 10% tax credit. Stale law requires the utility company to buy back all excess power generated by the system. Chris' annual power bill is estimated to be $2000, and this will be eliminated by the solar system. Chris expects to receive a check from the power company for $600 each year for his excess production. If the tax credits are received at EOY 1 & Chris receives a $2000 savings plus a $600 income at the end of each year, use PW to determine if the system pays for itself in 8 years. Assume he earns 3% on all investments.

Inflation
  • You place $4000 into an account paying 8% compounded annually. Inflation is 2.5% during each of the next 3 years. What is the account's value at the end of the 3 years in Year-0 dollars?





Friday, May 15, 2015

Excel Engineering Economics

EngEconSlides.pdf#page=3

F/P    FV,,
P/F    PV,,
A/F    PMT,,

A/P    PMT
F/A    FV
P/A    PV

P = 10k 5 yrs i = 5%
PMT $2,309.75  = A/P PMT,, $1,809.75  = A/F
PV $43,294.77  = P/A PV,, $7,835.26  = P/F
FV $55,256.31  = F/A FV,, $12,762.82  = F/P






Friday, November 8, 2013

A Beginner's Guide to Irrational Behavior

by Dan Ariely

1.1 Visual & Decision Illusions
Here were kind people—wonderful people,
who were spending hours in terrible
conditions to serve their patients.
And they were not saying, you know, I
don't know which is the right way.
They were convinced that the right thing
to do was actually the thing that was
wrong.
It's not as if they say, I just don't know
what the right answer is.
No they actually had a strong conviction
that they knew what the right answer is,
but that was not the right one.

[good people trying to do "good things"]

1.3 Do We Know Our Preferences?
List 10 different reasons why the majority of people should not be lifelong learners. 
List 8 different reasons why you should not be an autodidact.
List 8 reasons public education should change. 
Just before: Now you can change their momentary mindset. The purpose is to take action. Do right before they should. 


1.6 Learning from our Mistakes
[Quotes]
Fork in the road to how they've "always done..." -> Steady, As She Goes by The Raconteurs

Extras



Coursera courses stop access to course materials six months after the course ends.
When reaching this limit either streamline double rate though lectures or read (and break into cards or notes or however you retain) the overviews/ handouts, ie, the second column image after the thought bubbles (when all courses have this layout slightly different).
Yet, some courses do not have outlines such as some math courses; some only have one such as the 2013 Scientific Computing's 140 page's notes packet.

Picture showing the links to course notes, etc, on right side.